The Russian national currency has entered a traditionally stressful period at the end of the year. Factors playing against the ruble in November-December outweigh even positive ones (such as the record oil price in the world for 2017). The ruble is becoming cheaper both relative to and relative to the single European currency. Let's look at the forecast for the euro exchange rate for the week from November 13 to 19, what will happen to the ruble and the euro in the coming days.
Euro exchange rate for November 11-13
On Friday, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation set the official euro exchange rate in Russia until Monday, November 13, at 68.9791 rubles per euro.
The European currency fell slightly short of 69 rubles. Let us recall that the euro was quoted above this level in Russia quite recently – at the end of September. In total, over the past week, the euro has risen in price against the ruble by 90 kopecks, and at such rates of growth of the European currency, it seems quite possible to reach the mark of 70 rubles per euro in the coming days.
Let us remember that the main factor that plays against the ruble at the end of each year is the need for businesses to pay off external borrowings.
Towards the end of the year, Russian business begins to stock up on foreign currency, and although this is traditionally done gradually, so as not to sharply collapse the exchange rate of the national currency, the overall depreciation of the ruble always turns out to be quite significant. The recovery of the ruble's position begins in January.
Now the euro exchange rate in December of the previous year, 2016, seems quite modest - 65.5 rubles. but starting in January, the euro began to fall in price quite rapidly, dropping to 60.5 rubles by April. The current exchange rate of 69 rubles is a consequence of the strengthening of the euro against the dollar. If at the beginning of the year there was almost parity between these currencies, and the cross rate was only 1.05, then by September it reached 1.19.
Euro exchange rate forecast for the week from November 13 to November 19
Let us turn to the euro exchange rate forecasts for the coming week from experts from the analytical agency APECON, who are not afraid to give predictions expressed in specific figures for various economic indicators. The version of the euro exchange rate forecast for the week from November 13 to 19 from APECON analysts is as follows:
- the 13th of November, Monday - the euro will exceed 69 rubles, the rate on Tuesday may be 69.11 rubles.
- November 14, Tuesday - the rate on Wednesday will be even higher, 69.47 rubles.
- 15th of November, Wednesday – slight course correction, until 69.30 rubles.
- November 16, Thursday - the rate on Friday will be equal 70.52 rubles.
- November 17, Friday – on the weekend the euro exchange rate may be 70.24 rubles.
Thus, experts expect that in the second half of the coming week the euro will again return to a rate above 70 rubles.
Those who trade on the stock exchange need to constantly be aware of the current price situation. But no less important for traders are forecast data, which is derived on the basis of technical analysis and other analytical tools. Naturally, it arouses the greatest interest. However, relying on only one currency is extremely short-sighted. In the investment portfolio You should still hold at least the euro. Therefore, traders will have to pay attention to the euro exchange rate forecast for the week and tomorrow, as well as for longer periods, including until the end of the year.
Where to find the euro exchange rate forecast for the week
Forecast data is posted on thematic Internet resources and official portals of exchanges and financial institutions. The greatest confidence, naturally, is caused by the euro exchange rate forecast for the week from the Central Bank - the nearest and future. On the official website of the department you can find and. These predictions have many advantages.
- Firstly, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has its own team of professional, competent and high-quality analysts. They use a variety of analysis tools, including innovative ones, and often have access to insider information.
- Secondly, Central Bank specialists give the most accurate forecasts about where the euro exchange rate will move - forward to increase or forward to decrease.
- Thirdly, forecast data is given in the form of a table in which it is convenient to find indicators for the desired period - for a day, a week, a whole month.
- Fourthly, the Central Bank’s forecasts reflect the market situation specifically in Russia and help to get an idea of what the ratio of values in the ruble-euro pair will be.
Euro average
Traders need to know how the European currency behaves today and what its price will be tomorrow and in the coming days to implement short-term trading strategies. Many people engage in just this type of trading - they constantly monitor quotes and sell or buy currency at the slightest quote changes. But in this way it is very rare to make a solid profit, only if you are lucky and after the purchase the price of the euro jumps up. The chart and forecast for the euro exchange rate for the week in the near future allows us to judge that stability still reigns in the market. Although in general there is a downward fluctuation in exchange rate values. According to Central Bank specialists, over the next week the euro will maintain an average value of 71.33 rubles, but it may also fall to the extreme minimum of 70.33 or rise to a maximum of 72.33 rubles. That is, in relation to the current value, the price will decrease by 0.95 rubles.
Euro growth prospects
Next week the euro may rise, albeit insignificantly, with periodic pullbacks to the downside. And this trend, according to experts, is typical for the entire current year. According to Reuters experts, economic growth in the euro will be at a reduced pace and will be approximately 1.5%. And we are already seeing something similar in the dynamics of stock quotes over the week, which have become the basis for forecasts for the next seven days.
Analysts are confident that the current growth rates are insufficient; they are constrained by external economic factors: uncertainties in the global trade sphere, sanctions against Russia, difficulties in trade and economic relations between the EU members themselves.
Also, the euro exchange rate in both the short and long term is affected by the inflation rate - 1%, which equalizes the growth rate. And this factor is necessarily taken into account when developing a weekly forecast for the euro exchange rate. Analysts also take into account the statement of the European Bank, which is not going to change monetary policy, which will help maintain the stability of the euro in the world market.
Video: Dollar and Euro exchange rates in Russia
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September began for the EURUSD pair with a powerful fall, which formed a long downward trend that lasted until the end of the month. This was triggered by market expectations that the ECB at its next meeting will announce the rollout of the QE program - quantitative easing - to support exporters and stimulate the economy.
At the same time, the ruble received support from the increased cost of oil, which allowed it to regain all the ground it had lost since the beginning of August 2019, and will approach strong support at 70.4. What to expect from EURUSD in the new month? Experts are trying to answer this question in their forecasts for the euro for October 2019.
Alexander Osin, analysts at the investment company Freedom Finance, expects that the euro in October will fluctuate within the range of 70.4-71.4 rubles. The expert bases his opinion on the fact that the euro and the ruble are now in similar situations and the only question is which currency will fall faster.
Alexander Osin, analysts at Freedom Finance Investment Company
In its latest report, the European Central Bank published figures for the economic development of EU countries, which showed that 90% of all European countries are practically marking time. The ECB cannot ignore such a fact, so the expert is confident that the regulator will soon begin to press the levers to weaken the European currency in order to stimulate economic development in the EU.
International Financial Center Forecast
Vladimir Rozhankovsky, an expert at the International Financial Center, draws attention to the fact that the ruble will be extremely weak in October. The expert names two reasons for this development:
- the need to pay off external debts;
- weakening of the oil price, from which the ruble received support throughout September.
Vladimir Rozhankovsky, expert at the International Financial Center
Rozhankovsky believes that in October the ruble will fall faster than the euro, since the weakening of the European currency was expected, and the market has already largely digested this news. Therefore, the analyst predicts that the euro will trade in the range of 72-74 rubles.
Alpari Forecast
Anna Bodrova, an analyst at Alpari, predicts that in October EURUSD will trade in the range of 70-71 rubles. According to the expert, both the euro and the ruble are now in a losing position. The euro is artificially weakened, and the ruble is no longer in demand among foreign investors, who, due to the confrontation between the United States and China, are afraid of the assets of developing countries.
Anna Bodrova, analyst at Alpari
Therefore, Bodrova believes that the euro will not fall below 70-70.4, since this is a strong technical level, but it will not rise either. It is likely that accumulation will occur in October, after which the euro will go up in November.
Experts agree that the euro is now very cheap and the European currency is unlikely to fall further. This is largely facilitated by Trump's policy aimed at softening the dollar, which does not allow the EURUSD pair to reach parity and supports the European currency.
Today I decided to tell you the latest euro forecast for 2017. Currently, the Russian economy is not going through the best of times; the financial situation of the state is very unstable.
The country's solvency largely depends on market conditions, or more precisely on the price of black gold. And as we all know, recently the price of oil has been at a low level. It is for this reason that the Russian economy is not in the most favorable position. European sanctions also had a negative impact on the state's economy.
The economic condition of the state can only improve if the internal/external situation normalizes and the price of oil rises, which will accordingly lead to an increase in the price of the Russian ruble. And if sanctions are lifted, then this will significantly improve the state’s economy.
Over the past two years, there has been a sharp depreciation of the ruble, which, in turn, has caused unrest among domestic citizens. Today, almost all domestic citizens are interested in exchange rates, including the forecast for the euro exchange rate for 2017.
Euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 from the Central Bank
The leadership of the Central Bank stated that soon we can expect a slight depreciation of the national currency, and accordingly the euro will rise against the ruble. But after Brexit, the euro/dollar pair began to show a stable downward trend, that is, the euro has been falling in price against the dollar for six months.
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Let me remind you that many experts predicted that the euro would become cheaper regardless of the referendum decision, which is exactly what happened.
The euro exchange rate forecast for 2017 suggests that euro quotes will fall in the future. So, the euro/dollar pair will be dominated by a downward trend next year.
So, the euro will become cheaper in the future, but in order to determine the future ratio of the euro to the ruble, it is worth finding out what will happen to the ruble in 2017. Unfortunately, a sharp improvement in the situation in the Russian Federation is not expected in the near future. Many analysts assume that next year the national currency rate will maintain a downward trend.
What is the best way to store currency in 2017?
Due to the fact that next year the domestic currency will become slightly cheaper, many Russian citizens are wondering where to store their savings in 2017. If you cannot choose what is better to buy: dollars or euros, then experienced financiers advise purchasing dollars.
I would like to note that the euro/ruble quotes are influenced by the euro/dollar pair quotes. Credit Suisse Bank, which is located in Switzerland, assures that in 2017 the value of the dollar and euro will be equal. Even if they are not quoted 1:1, the price of the dollar will significantly approach the value of the euro.
The opinion of Morgan Stanley employees is somewhat different from that presented above; they assume that in 2017 the value of the EU currency will be 90 rubles. You should not blindly trust their forecasts, as they are often mistaken and change their forecasts.
Employees of the Ministry of Economic Development assure that an increase in oil prices can lead to stabilization of the Russian economy. And if oil remains at $40, then the government will have to cut budget spending.
Some experts suggest that the government will not be able to cut spending, which will soon lead to a sharp collapse of the ruble. China actively trades with Russia. If in the future the PRC does not improve its position, this will contribute to a further reduction in the price of black gold, which will accordingly lead to a depreciation of the ruble.
In order to improve the situation in the Reserve Fund, you can take the following measures:
- Reduce expenses.
- Use funds from the Welfare Fund.
- Activate issue financing.
Experienced specialists consider the use of the second point inappropriate, as this will increase the debt. The best option is to reduce costs. Thus, the Russian leadership plans to reduce expenses by 3 trillion rubles in 2017. It is not yet clear what measures will be taken for this.
The most accurate euro exchange rate forecast for 2017
You can see the euro forecast for 2017 in Russia below.
January 2017
At the beginning of the new year, the euro will cost 73.4. The maximum exchange rate in January 2017 was 73.4, and the minimum was 70.5. The monthly average is 72.2.
February 2017
In the first days of February, the value of the European currency will be 71.6. The maximum exchange rate in February 2017 will be 74.4, and the minimum will be 71.5. The average for the entire month is 72.74.
At the beginning of March 2017, the price of the European currency will be 73.3. The maximum rate value will be 73.3, and the minimum 70.4. The average value for the month of March is 72.1.
April 2017
At the beginning of April 2017, the euro will cost 71.5. The maximum exchange rate will be 71.6, and the minimum 69.5. The average value will be around 70.6.
At the beginning of May 2017, the euro will cost 70.6. The maximum price will be 70.7, and the minimum will be 68.6. The average price of the EU currency will be 69.9.
In June 2017, the euro will cost 69.6. The maximum price in June 2017 will be 69.6, and the minimum will be 66.9. The average value of quotations in June is 68.5.
In July, the European currency will cost 67.9. The maximum rate in July 2017 will be 68.99, and the minimum 66.95. The average value of European currency quotes will be around 67.97.
August 2017
In August, the European currency will cost 67.97. The maximum rate in August 2017 will be 70.7, and the minimum 67.9. The average price will be around 69.05.
September 2017
This month the European currency will cost 69.7. The maximum rate in September 2017 will be 72.5, and the minimum 69.7. The average cost in September will be 70.8.
October 2017
This month the price of the euro is 71.4. The limit quotes will be 72.08, and the minimum quote will be 69.95. The average cost in October will be 71.5.
November 2017
At the beginning of November 2017, the euro will cost 71. The maximum rate in November 2017 will be 71, and the minimum 67.2. The average cost in November will be 68.9.
December 2017
At the beginning of December 2017, the euro will cost 69.3. The maximum quotes will be around 71.7, and the minimum 69.3. The average cost in December will be 70.2.
Euro(English Euro) is the official currency of 19 countries of the Eurozone (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Spain, Italy, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, the Netherlands, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia, Finland, France, Estonia). The euro is also the national currency of 9 other countries, 7 of which are located in Europe. However, unlike eurozone participants, these countries cannot influence the monetary policy of the European Central Bank and send their representatives to its governing bodies. Thus, the euro is the common currency for more than 340 million Europeans. As of November 2013, there were 951 billion euros in cash circulation, making this currency the owner of the highest total value of cash circulating around the world, ahead of the US dollar in this indicator.
1 euro is equal to 100 cents (or eurocents). Banknote denominations in circulation: 500, 200, 100, 50, 20, 10 and 5 euros. Coins: 2 and 1 euro, 50, 20, 10, 5, 2 and 1 cent. The name of the currency comes from the word “Europe”.
Eurocurrency is printed by central banks that are members of the European System of Central Banks. All issued banknotes have one standard design. The front side depicts windows, gates, bridges - as symbols of openness and interconnection. They are made in the form of typical examples of the main styles of European architecture: classical, Romanesque, Gothic, Renaissance, Baroque and Rococo, “metal and glass”, Art Nouveau. At the same time, euro banknotes differ in color palette: 500 are purple, 200 are yellow, 100 are green, 50 are orange, 20 are blue, 10 are red, and 5 are gray.
Unlike banknotes, coins only have a common front side, on which the denomination is placed against the background of a symbolic map of Europe. The reverse side is considered “national” - each issuing central bank has its own for each denomination.
Despite the fact that the non-cash euro was officially introduced on January 1, 1999, and cash was issued on January 1, 2002, the history of the single European currency is older. Before the euro appeared, from 1979 to 1998, the European currency system used the ECU (European Currency Unit), which was a conventional basket of national currencies of a number of countries. The ECU was subsequently exchanged for euros at a one-to-one rate.
Trading in the euro on the international foreign exchange market officially began on January 4, 1999. In order to relieve investors from currency risks, quotations of national currencies were fixed. Thus, the exchange rate of the German mark was 1.95583 per euro, the French franc - 6.55957, and the Italian lira - 1,936.21. At the same time, the initial exchange rate of the euro against the dollar was determined at approximately $1.17.
During 1999, the euro quotes steadily declined, eventually reaching the so-called parity - the equality of 1 euro and 1 dollar. At the end of September 2000, the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England and a number of European banks conducted a joint intervention in support of the single euro currency. However, this did not prevent it from reaching an absolute historical minimum, which amounted to $0.8230 per euro in October 2000.
It was recognized that a further decline in the single currency could harm the European economy. At the same time, by the end of 2000, in order to cope with the upcoming recession, the US Federal Reserve set a course for easing monetary policy, cutting, in particular, the discount rate to 2%. Since interest rates were higher in Europe, the euro became more attractive for investment than the dollar. In addition, in 2001, the American economy experienced a shock caused by the September 11 terrorist attack. By the end of the year, the euro was trading at 0.96 per dollar, and by July 2002 it had returned to parity. It finally became more expensive than the dollar after December 6 of the same year. And in 2003, it began to confidently grow in price against the backdrop of the US entry into the war in Iraq.
The rate reached its initial value of 1.1736, recorded on the first trading day, on May 23, 2003, and its absolute maximum - 1.5990 - in 2008. This became possible due to the global financial crisis, which this time originated in the financial system of the United States. Economists believe that the euro's strength was due mainly to the weakness of the American economy, and not to the strength of the European one. This assumption is also supported by the fact that the aggravation of problems in the eurozone subsequently led to a stop in the growth of currency quotes. In the summer of 2011, the euro exchange rate fluctuates between 1.41 and 1.45 dollars.
Nevertheless, during its existence, the euro confidently took second place in the world in terms of government reserves. This is due to the fact that the total gross domestic product of the countries included in the eurozone exceeds even the GDP of the United States, which ranks first in the world.
The euro/dollar currency pair is the most traded on the Forex market and financial derivatives - futures. Today, Europe represents a real alternative to the United States in terms of investment opportunities. At the same time, the choice of investors is influenced primarily by a comparison of macroeconomic indicators of the two regions, such as the inflation rate, prevailing interest rates, GDP, trade balance, etc.
At the same time, the biggest problem of the euro area remains the difference in the level of the economies of the participating countries. The strongest are Germany, Italy, and France. Those experiencing difficulties include Greece, Ireland and a number of others.
For Russian investors, the euro is traditionally interesting as an alternative to the American dollar. The European currency is used to diversify risks associated with exchange rates, and as an independent investment direction during times of rising quotes.
In addition, it should be taken into account that it is more profitable to make payments in euro zone member countries using debit or credit cards in this currency in order to avoid unnecessary conversion.